Guides and original research

Estimate. Stress-test. Calibrate.

Use the calculator for a starting number, then follow the evidence path that explains the assumptions, exposes the uncertainty, and shows how to test the result.

Recommended path

Four decisions, in order

01

Understand the deficit

Learn what the estimate can and cannot predict before choosing a pace.

Read the calorie deficit guide
02

Choose activity

Use the whole week, not gym frequency alone, to select the starting band.

Try the activity-level calculator

Read the activity decision guide

03

Compare models

See why correctly calculated estimates can still differ by hundreds of calories.

Understand calculator disagreement
04

Calibrate

Test the forecast with two comparable weeks instead of changing calories daily.

Follow the calibration workflow

Original dataset

12 profiles reveal where calorie estimates separate

Our reproducible benchmark compares two published equations with two weight-only heuristics. The equations differed by 115 kcal/day on average; the full four-method spread averaged 989.

Explore the benchmark

12synthetic profiles
4estimation methods
2download formats

How these pages are produced

Deficit Compass separates published equations from project-specific choices. Formula pages link primary papers, original analyses publish their data, and health-adjacent limitations are stated rather than hidden behind a disclaimer.

Pages identify the publisher, publication date, review status, and meaningful creation details. AI may assist research organization and drafting, but Builderfox LLC remains responsible for calculations, source claims, and final wording. Read the complete editorial policy and correction log.

Educational planning, not individualized care

The guides are intended for adults using general calorie-planning estimates. They cannot account for pregnancy, breastfeeding, eating-disorder history, medication effects, illness, or other clinical needs. Use qualified guidance when those conditions apply or when concerning symptoms occur.

Planning tools

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